June 01, 2018

Chris DeMuth Jr , Rangeley Capital

I am just a fellow looking for an edge.

Sohn Idea Contest Winner Breaks Down La Quinta Thesis

La Quinta’s (LQ; disclosure: long) upcoming spin of their owned hotels (in combination with the sale of their franchised business) into a REIT presents investors with all the hallmarks of a classic undervalued / underestimated spin: the spun-off business will be completely different than the current one, management is going to the spinco, the trailing financials are messy, a quirk in the deal structure incentivizes management to sandbag numbers / valuation heading into the spin, and the spinco will be a juicy acquisition target for a variety of strategic acquirers. I believe the entire company is worth more than $23/share today, which presents solid upside from today’s price of $18.60/share. However, I also think that upside undersells the opportunity, as $8.40/share will be returned in cash in the near term (sometime in Q2). Looking through that cash distribution, you’re creating the REIT business (CorePoint) for ~$10 against my valuation of >$15, presenting over 50% upside.

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More from Chris DeMuth Jr

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

SPAC Pair Trade

I am highly selective in SPAC targets. My favorite way to hedge them is to short a SPAC ETF (SPAK). But every once in a while, there is one worth owning and dMY III (DMYI.U) is one.

Mar 08, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Buzz And Buzzless

Dave Portnoy has put on a suit. Is now the right time for BUZZ, the VanEck Vectors Social Sentiment ETF? Buzzless: if not BUZZ, then what?

Mar 08, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Today's Best SPAC: DMY IV

$300 million dMY Technology Group, Inc. IV (DMYQ.U) trades for the first time on Friday, March 5, 2021. When you buy a unit, you get a share of equity, upside in the form of a fifth of a warrant that you can exercise later for $11.50.

Mar 05, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Hedges For 2021's Reopening

This isn’t calling the top. This isn’t a bearish bet. This is a recognition that the best time to have the most liquidity is when others don’t.

Mar 04, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Sell Your Tilray

If you own Tilray (TLRY), sell it or buy write it and flip the exposure into Aphria (APHA) for a better risk:reward. If you’re looking for more cannabis exposure, buy Silver Spike II when it becomes available later this month.

Feb 11, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Striking Silver

Buy PAASF. Wait. Don’t (here or ever) bet what you can’t lose ‘cause you might, but it is worth over 80% more than it costs and offers a 2x – 4x return over the next 8 years or less.

Feb 01, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Clean Energy Pivot Bonanza For Alussa SPAC

In SPACs' $40 Trillion ESG TAM, I describe why ESG is one of my favorite categories for SPAC targets. This is today’s best new SPAC deal for exploiting that massive opportunity.

Jan 29, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

A Double And The Next Danimer

Buy ANDAR and their snacks today; buy LOKM.U when it IPOs.

Jan 29, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

SPAC Action This Day: Softbank’s SVF

$525 million SVF Investment Corp. (SVFAU) is Softbank’s SPAC. It will start trading on the Nasdaq (QQQ) today, Friday, January 8, 2021.

Jan 08, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

VectoIQ Acquisition Corp. II

$300 million VectoIQ Acquisition Corp. II (VTIQU) is their second SPAC. It will start trading on the Nasdaq (QQQ) today, Thursday, January 7, 2021.

Jan 07, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

SPAC Action This Day: Star Peak II

How do you sort through the opportunities in today's SPAC boom? Amidst hundreds of choices, I highlight just one new SPAC opportunity each day. Follow me to get them directly in your inbox. Join StW to keep getting this content after this month.

Jan 06, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

3 Hacks: Bitcoin, S&P, And JETS

Here is my shortest, simplest explanation for how you can exploit this year’s ETF opportunities for profit.

Jan 06, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Best Idea For 2021

SuRo (SSSS) is an internally managed BDC that invests in pre-IPO tech companies. In general, BDC’s are valued on a P/NAV (net asset value) multiple. SSSS’s last NAV was $12.46/share (reported 9/30/20); since then, they paid three dividends.

Jan 04, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Top Bitcoin and SPAC Bets For 2021

Personally, Bitcoin (BTC-USD) was my biggest winner over the past year and decade. Currencies have a network effect such that my biggest cryptocurrency exposure has always been in the biggest cryptocurrency.

Jan 04, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

100% Upside For 2021's Best SPAC

2021's best SPAC idea is AerSale (ASLE).

Jan 04, 2021

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

3 Best Forever Stocks For 2021

Want a taste of what StW members get? Here’s 1/2 of their morning update.

Dec 31, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

10 Questions For 2020

I started the year with ten questions for myself and others. What is overvalued and undervalued? How can we best spot the difference and exploit it? Click here to continue reading...

Dec 25, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Counting Down To Midnight

I have an almost perfect record in sabrage, one of my favorite party tricks. My son is a fencer and we both like swords, so I’m always eager to pull one from the wall and knock off the top of a champagne bottle at a party.

Dec 24, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

The #1 SPAC In History

In the history of SPACs, the top performing deSPACed equity is QuantumScape (QS), formerly Kensington Capital Acquisition Corp. (nee KCAC). For $10, IPO subscribers received a unit consisting of a stock and a half of a warrant.

Dec 10, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

2 Stocks You Gotta Buy

Literally, if you, like many investors, own the S&P 500 (SPY) via an index fund or ETF, you have to buy it. And you’ll do so all at once on Friday December 18th at 4 PM.

Dec 03, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Beyond Beyond Meat

New flavor, new cooking instructions, and new guidance (something must have been terribly wrong with the previous flavor, cooking instructions, and guidance). The new guidance is.. no guidance on Q4 and the fiscal year.

Nov 11, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

3 Goldilocks Plays For A World After Trump And Covid

Two macro risks threatened my portfolio – political chaos or radicalism and the Covid pandemic. Both had major steps towards resolution over the past few days. That leaves three of my exposures – EBC, FRG, and MNCL – in a far better position.

Nov 10, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Hidin’ from Biden

Not necessarily private island rich or yacht rich or jet rich or even parking spot in Manhattan rich. But in “only the rich are about to get a big tax hike” rich: you’re rich.

Oct 26, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

Why Did Eastern Just Pop 25%?

It is a great place in line – ahead of most of the sell-side coverage, a favorable political environment, Russell- dividend- S&P- and ESG-driven demand that could gobble up over 20% of the float, and share buybacks.

Oct 22, 2020

Chris DeMuth Jr, Rangeley Capital

The ESG Bank: Eastern Bancorp

The potential for ESG investors, the passive money and index dynamics, the incredibly cheap valuation, and the fact that this is one of the highest quality banks in the country make it an exciting opportunity for 75% of TBV. It is worth over $16.

Oct 19, 2020

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