Brazil: Pensions, Profiteering, and Profligacy (Short Thesis)
Harvesters,
The economic uncertainty within Brazil is as fascinating as it is deleterious, making this addictive narrative all the easier to tell. Naturally, the story of Brazil begins much like that of any other crippling tale of political profligacy and economic uncertainty; this is because countries, like businesses, are simply a macrocosm of their components - which in this case, is people. Despite the preceding centuries of conflicting economic theories, people are not rational economic actors; in fact, we're just the opposite - we make atrocious short-term decisions, we're all over-optimistic, and we almost always seem to neglect any type of early warning signs.
Brazilians, as odd as this might seem, are not dissimilar to Texans; both groups are surrounded by beautiful woman, and more importantly, have a proclivity to believe that an infinitesimal amount of oil will continue to flow out of the ground for eternity and lavish them with financial freedoms beyond their delusional imagination.
The core contention behind my draconian view on the Brazilian economy is based on those set forth by the authors of This Time Is Different - Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, both Harvard professors and foremost experts in sovereign defaults and the variables that precede them.
As always, please feel free to e-mail me at taylor@pinecapitalpartners.com if you have any comments/questions on the report.
Best,
Taylor
(Note: This report was written several months ago)
The economic uncertainty within Brazil is as fascinating as it is deleterious, making this addictive narrative all the easier to tell. Naturally, the story of Brazil begins much like that of any other crippling tale of political profligacy and economic uncertainty; this is because countries, like businesses, are simply a macrocosm of their components - which in this case, is people. Despite the preceding centuries of conflicting economic theories, people are not rational economic actors; in fact, we're just the opposite - we make atrocious short-term decisions, we're all over-optimistic, and we almost always seem to neglect any type of early warning signs.
Brazilians, as odd as this might seem, are not dissimilar to Texans; both groups are surrounded by beautiful woman, and more importantly, have a proclivity to believe that an infinitesimal amount of oil will continue to flow out of the ground for eternity and lavish them with financial freedoms beyond their delusional imagination.
The core contention behind my draconian view on the Brazilian economy is based on those set forth by the authors of This Time Is Different - Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart, both Harvard professors and foremost experts in sovereign defaults and the variables that precede them.
As always, please feel free to e-mail me at taylor@pinecapitalpartners.com if you have any comments/questions on the report.
Best,
Taylor
(Note: This report was written several months ago)
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