Turkey`s national security has suffered, in large part, due to Erdogan’s domestic political agenda

At least 41 are dead and more than 200 wounded after Tuesday night’s terrorist attack on Istanbul’s Ataturk Airport. It is the latest in an increasingly devastating series of terrorist attacks in Turkey, dating back to the rise of ISIS and renewed hostilities with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Turkish Prime Minister Binali Yildirim has said that the government believes ISIS to be responsible for Tuesday’s attack, though no one has yet claimed responsibility. It is not a surprise as ISIS has not claimed responsibility for its attacks in Turkey in the past.

The attack is the fifth in Istanbul this year, and each one attributed to ISIS has targeted Istanbul’s  population centers. The attack on Istanbul Ataturk Airport will undoubtedly affect Turkey’s tourism industry, which has suffered likewise from the diplomatic tension with Russia, terror incidents in Sultanahmet and Taksim Square, but more significant is the air of danger and uncertainty that now surrounds Turkey.

With every terrorist attack, Turkey becomes a symbol of political failure and the general chaos enveloping the Middle East. SGA expects that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s inability to secure or stabilize Turkey against ISIS or the PKK in favor of pursuing his domestic political agenda will have much further reaching consequences than any number of terrorist attacks.

Turkish security has suffered, in large part, due to Erdogan’s domestic political agenda, and how it has affected elements of Turkish foreign and national security policy. Dating back to the outbreak of the ongoing wars in the Middle East, Erdogan’s primary concern has been preventing the Kurdish PYD in Syria, and the PKK in southeastern Turkey, from prospering amidst the military chaos and threatening Turkey’s borders.

To this end Turkey has chosen not to cooperate fully with the Western plan to defeat ISIS. This in turn has led to a great deal of speculation that Turkey has allowed radical Islamic militants to cross its borders on the way to Syria and Iraq, and has even turned a blind eye to cells operating within Turkey itself. The clear priority given to defeating the Kurds is evident in the response to the terrorist attacks perpetrated against Turks in past two years. Erdogan has used the PKK attacks as clear political messages, bemoaning threats to Turkish sovereignty and identity, while pictures, talking points, and reaction to attacks by ISIS have been less forthcoming.

Erdogan’s specific Kurdish-centric policy is driven by his desire to rewrite Turkey’s constitution to make way for a presidential system wherein the president has far more power than is currently the case. By polarizing the country furher, President Erdogan hopes to increase support among his base and has encouraged nationalistic rhetoric and allowed extreme forms of Islam to fester in a traditionally tolerant Muslim society. SGA analysis shows that the combination of Erdogan’s policy decisions and recent ISIS defeats have exposed Turkey to more frequent and deadly terrorist attacks.

ISIS has lashed out previously by using global terrorism to respond to threats and defeats in Iraq and Syria, and to demonstrate its continued capacity for terror. The recent Iraq offensive in Fallujah that only recently pushed out ISIS may have encouraged the radicals to plan another large attack. SGA similarly believes that as ISIS becomes weaker and weaker as a state, it will transform into an organization dedicated to carrying out suicide bombings and mass shootings in lieu of losing its territorial holdings.

The group’s apparent organizational cohesion and resonance with foreign radicals and disaffected Muslims make this a particularly troubling possibility. Turkey is especially vulnerable due to its porous border with Iraq and Syria, the policies that have allowed radical Islam to grow inside of the country, and the success ISIS has already had. News sources have also suggested that with its attack on Ataturk Airport, ISIS may have been responding to recent efforts by Erdogan and the Turkish government to rebuild its relations with Israel and Russia. While ISIS sympathizers will doubtless look upon these efforts with disdain, SGA suspects a coordinated such as Tuesday’s attack is a long time in the making, and more than likely was planned before Turkish rapprochement with Israel and Russia became popular news.

SGA analysis suggests that the continued success of ISIS in targeting Turkish population and tourism centers will damage the Turkish economy by encouraging the Turkish government to forego institutional reforms. The tourism industry will suffer, but so will opportunities for meaningful long-term change. Instability and uncertainty have hurt Turkish industry and has discouraged investment, but political leadership and investors in the West are just as concerned with the increasingly authoritarian and irrational nature of Erdogan’s leadership.

Erdogan has shown the ability and willingness to dominate the Turkish politics regardless of the supposed preeminence of the Prime Minister, and each additional terrorist attack or threat to Turkish security will only serve to justify in Erdogan’s mind the need for his leadership. In order for Turkey to prosper economically in the long term, it must focus on building up free and functioning political, economic, and security institutions. The current state of Turkish politics suggest these goals are far removed from the immediate pursuit of power.